Foster City, CA, based Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) is perhaps the world's premier play on HIV/AIDS therapy. Gilead's third quarter financial results were solid -- nothing new -- for the company, as management has posted upside surprise after upside surprise throughout the past several years. EPS of $0.55 in the quarter was $0.02 above our forecasts based on strong product sales and lower-than-expected SG&A [selling, general and administrative] costs.
Sales of key products, Truvada and Atripla, both exceeded expectations in the third quarter. The Atripla uptake is going very well, and with the recent approval for Viread in HBV, Gilead remains well positioned to continue the strong top-line growth demonstrated over the past few years.
The pipeline is also progressing nicely. Letairis should become the best-in-class ETRA for PAH, and given the lack of drug-drug interactions seen in the phase III trials, it should be used first-line with Pfizer's (PFE) Revatio. We are pleased with the Letairis launch so far and expect a meaningful ramp in sales over the next few quarters.
Besides Letairis, drug such as elvitegravir and GS-9350 look like potential winners. Also, phase III candidate darusentan offers a high risk / high reward upside option to our beyond 2011 forecasts. The only mishap over the past few months was the FDA's complete response letter on aztreonam lysine in September 2008.
The stock is currently $44. Our target is $52 based on 21x our 2009 EPS forecast of $2.46 per share. This is in-line with the broader biotechnology peer-group average. At this level we would be opportunistic buyers of Gilead's stock.
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