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Despite the sharp deterioration in the macro backdrop in the last few months, ConocoPhillips (COP) remains well positioned to navigate the current downturn. We estimate that the company will remain free cash flow positive even in a low oil price environment in 2009, without needing to change significantly its investment plans.
ConocoPhillips has significantly strengthened its upstream portfolio over the last few years through its Burlington and LUKOIL transactions, and remains a premier domestic refining player. Recent alliances with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), Saudi Aramco, and Australia's Origin Energy are catalysts for the company's future growth.
On valuation grounds, the stock is compellingly cheap, particularly following the recent sell-off. Our recommendation is Buy and our target price is $80 per share.
Read the full analyst report on COP
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