Jones Soda Company (JSDA) has been successfully implementing a growth strategy based on introducing innovative new products, employing unique marketing programs, and utilizing multiple channels of distribution. The company is in the early stages of development as a participant in the carbonated soft drink (CSD) industry. The last two quarterly earnings reports were negative surprises and management has pared 2007 revenue guidance from the initial estimation of 50% down to 20%.
However, the stock's price has discounted the majority of the negative developments. Jones Soda is currently selling at 344 times trailing 12 month EPS, reflecting the company's the recent negative earnings surprises. Jones Soda has a higher-than-average revenue growth profile and long-term potential as a producer and marketer of new age beverages. The franchise would have particular value to a major CSD company. In addition, the company should benefit from additional retail accounts and improved distribution capabilities. In 2006, the company achieved shelf space penetration of 25% in all commodity volume (ACV) at retail through product innovation and incremental agreements with retailers.
Management plans to increase the penetration level to 30% by the end of 2007 and to over 50% in 2008. However, the recent negative earnings surprises, along with delay in the launch of CSD and slower-than planned concentrate sales, are concerning. In addition, the company has not achieved the planned growth in ACV in 2007. As a result, management has lowered outlook for sales growth to 20%, down from the initial estimate in the 50% range. Since the company is in its early stage of growth, earnings and cash flow are volatile. The stock is better valued using P/S (Price-to-Sales). Jones Soda's stock has traded in a wide P/S multiple range of 3.5 to 20.6 over the last few years. The rating is a Hold. The $7.25 target price is 4.25 times trailing 12-month sales.
Read the full analyst report on JSDA.
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