We are continuing our Hold on Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI), but increasing our target price to $95. BNI reported 2007 fourth quarter diluted EPS of $1.46, up 3% year over year and $0.06 higher than consensus and $0.04 above our $1.42 estimate, as revenues came in better than we estimated due to record quarterly revenues and volumes for Ag Products and Coal.
We are keeping our 2008 diluted EPS estimate at $5.90, in-line with the company's earnings guidance of low double-digit EPS growth. Revenues should benefit from fuel surcharges and rate increases, partially offset by significantly higher unhedged fuel costs and flat to lower volumes. BNI recently increased its annual dividend 28% to $1.28. BNI also announced its planned $2.45 billion capital commitment program for 2008, roughly $350 million lower than 2007. The company anticipates leasing 200 locomotives with a cost of about $400 million and investing over $200 million in track and facilities to expand capacity to continue to meet demand for consistent freight rail service.
In addition, BNI currently expects to spend more than $1.8 billion on infrastructure. Free cash flow after dividends in 2008 is estimated at roughly $800 million. At its current price, the stock is trading slightly above par compared to the industry median P/Es for 2008 and 2009, but is trading well above the industry median on price/book. Moreover, BNI's PEG ratio (P/E divided by the expected earnings growth rate) now matches the industry median. Accordingly, we believe the stock is fully valued. Our Hold recommendation is based upon a six-month target price of $95 or 16x our 2008 diluted EPS estimate of $5.90.
Read the full analyst report on BNI.
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