Two big events on Sunday are going to affect trading Monday morning.
In a surprise (shocking might be a better word) move, the Fed lowered the discount rate to 3.25% from 3.5%. The maturity of the primary credit loans was widened to 90 days from 30 days. In addition, the Fed created a lending facility that provides funding to financial institutions that are not tightly regulated banks.
Considering that these decisions were made over the weekend and two days before a scheduled meeting, it can only suggest that Fed officials are very worried that the credit crunch could severely worsen. Though the weekend's actions are going to be criticized, in a potential crisis situation, action is almost always better than non-action.
I have been saying that the U.S. is facing a liquidity problem, not an economic problem, and the recent actions of the Fed support my position.
Secondly, J.P. Morgan (JPM) is acquiring Bear Stearns (BSC) for a price of about $2 per share; a sharp discount to Friday's already beaten down price. (The stock-swap values BSC at 0.05473 shares of JPM.) The steepness of the discount implies that Bear Stearns' problems left it unable to continue as a standalone business. As we have seen in the past, when a financial firm hits a crisis, events happen very quickly.
As I write this on Sunday evening, I am hesitant to say how trading will unfold on Monday. Clearly, the credit crisis has yet to be contained. This said, there are industry groups that continue to benefit from favorable trends such as defense, agriculture and video gaming.
Read the snapshot report for JPM.
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