Slowdown Has PACCAR a Hold

Tags: pcar
27 Mar 10:44pm
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PACCAR, Inc. (PCAR) is benefiting from rising prices and increasing market share, along with strong growth in Mexico and Australia. Currently, the stock is valued at 13.4x our 2008 earnings of $3.51. PACCAR is benefiting from rising prices and market share, along with strong growth in Mexico and Australia. In 2007, PACCAR repurchased 6.96 million of its common shares (split adjusted) by investing $360.5 million.


Over the past three years, PACCAR also invested $978 million to repurchase 27.4 million shares and paid over $1.7 billion in dividends to the shareholders for a total return of over $2.7 billion. Recently, the company paid an extra cash dividend of $1 per share.


The company achieved a compounded annual growth rate in earnings per share of 22.7% for the last ten years compared to the S&P 500's growth rate of 5.9%. The stock also outperformed the S&P 500 Index for the previous one-, three-, five-, and ten-year time periods.


The US and Canadian Class 8 market declined 45% in 2007 due to new emission regulations as well as a slower economy, resulting from the housing and automotive industry downturn. This has negatively affected earnings in the US and Europe. The company cut down its retail sales forecast as it expects the economic slowdown to continue through the first half of the year.


Additionally, PACCAR is leaving a layer of margin on the table by sourcing engines externally, and is currently not capturing as much of the downstream parts business as it could. This strong Class 8 market downturn leads us to rate the stock a Hold, with a six-month price target of $50. This is 14.2x our 2008 earnings estimate.


Read the full analyst report on PCAR.




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