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DPL Inc. (DPL) continues to benefit from its stable regulated electric power operations. The advent of 2008 saw gains on sale of emission allowances, higher top-line and rates mainly in the retail segment, and lower O&M expenses. Moreover, the liquidation of the company's investment portfolio provides sufficient capital for expanding the utility's operating base, reducing debt and interest expense, buying back stock and/or increasing the dividend.
However, increased purchased power costs, ongoing investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), and uncertainty over the successful allocation of new capital toward greater earnings power remain concerns. Accordingly, we maintain a BUY recommendation on DPL common stock with a six-month target price of $30.25.
Price appreciation to our near-term valuation target, coupled with the recently increased $0.275 per share quarterly cash dividend which we deem sustainable and secure represents annualized total return potential of 24.5%. DPL continues to benefit through its stable regulated electric power operations. Moreover, the liquidation of the company's private equity investment portfolio provides sufficient capital for expanding the utility's operating base, reducing debt, repurchasing stock, and/or increasing its dividend.
Going forward, investors may take comfort in management's strategic shift toward stable regulated utility operations, focus towards environment friendly power and away from volatile unregulated businesses. As of the date of this report, DPL trades at 13.9x and 12x, respectively, our 2008 and 2009 earnings per share estimates, or at a discount to its diversified energy utilities peers.
Given our preference for share price multiples of operating earnings relative to comparable multiples of a company's peers, combined with above industry average long-term earnings growth expectations, forecasted year-over-year EPS through 2009, a competitive dividend yield and continued consolidation in the utilities sector, we maintain our BUY recommendation on DPL common stock with a six-month target price of $30.25.
Read the full analyst report on DPL.
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