Pervasive Early in Rollout Cycle

Tags: pvsw
26 Aug 2:28am
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Pervasive Software, Inc. (PVSW) reported revenues of $11.2 million in Q4:08, up 8.7% year-over-year [y/y] and up 3.7% quarter-over-quarter [q/q]. GAAP EPS came in at $0.04. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.07, in line with our estimate.


International operations accounted for 42% of total revenues, up 20% from Q3:08 and 37% year over year. Data products accounted for 67% of quarterly revenues while integrated products accounted for 33% of the total quarterly revenues. The data business is expected to get a boost with the recent release of PSQL Version 10.10, which is already Microsoft (MSFT) certified for Windows Server 2008. For fiscal 2008, revenues came in at $42.5 million, up 4% from a year ago.


Based on our FY08 EPS estimate of $0.25, PVSW shares currently trade at a P/E of 15.0x. We believe that the stock will trade in a range of $4.25-5.40, or from approximately 7.0x to 11.0x FY09 fully taxed earnings plus $2.30 per share in cash, until the new Pervasive SQL product cycle gains traction. We believe that MSFT Vista rollouts should start to become significant in the second half of CY08 and continue throughout CY09.


Taking this into account, we estimate that PVSWs FY09 total revenue should grow at 7% y/y to $46 million. We expect to see expansion in PVSWs gross margins from its current level to around 88% and operating margins should increase as PVSW should be able to keep operating expenses at current levels. We continue with a Hold rating on PVSW shares and a target price of $5.00.


Read the full analyst report on PVSW



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