Guess, Inc. (GES) is scheduled to report second quarter results on September 3. We expect the company to have sales of $467 million and earnings per share of $0.50. Those estimates represent sales growth of 20% and EPS growth of 22%. For the third quarter, Guess expects sales of $445-$465 million and EPS of $0.47-$0.49. For the full year, it forecast sales of $2.03-$2.08 billion and EPS of $2.40-$2.48.
We note that the management is typically cautious with its guidance, so Guess should be able to beat consensus estimates in the second quarter and issue guidance above expectations. Still, we believe the company's upside surprises are going to be smaller in future quarters. That's because expectations are higher, while at the same time economic conditions are not improving. All told, we maintain our Hold rating.
Guess shares are currently trading at 14.7x our fiscal year 2009 EPS estimate and 12.5x our fiscal 2010 EPS estimate. GES trades at a slight premium to its peer group based on price-to-earnings, price-to-book, price-to-sales, and price-to-cash flow. We believe a premium valuation relative to its peers is warranted because of Guess impressive results in recent quarters and stronger prospects for growth.
However, we believe the company will not be able to deliver upside surprises in future quarters as it has in the recent past. This will result in the stock trading at a P/E multiple in the mid-teens, compared to its long-term earnings growth of 20%. Our target price is $39 or 15x to 16x our fiscal 2009 EPS estimate.
Read the full analyst report on GES
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