Guess? Beats, Outlook Cautious

Tags: ges
5 Sep 10:11pm
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Guess? Inc. (GES) reported strong results for the second quarter of fiscal 2009. It reported sales of $515 million and EPS of $0.57, easily beating consensus estimates. Despite the huge upside in the second quarter, the management's full-year guidance wasn't all that bullish.


Guess now expects sales of $2.06-$2.11 billion and EPS of $2.47-$2.53, which was up from its previous guidance of $2.03-$2.08 billion and EPS of $2.40-$2.48. The management is typically cautious with its guidance. Even so, the company is experiencing its strongest growth in parts of the world where economic growth is slowing. We would not chase the shares here.


Guess shares are currently trading at 15.1x our fiscal year 2009 EPS estimate and 13.0x our fiscal 2010 EPS estimate. GES trades at a slight premium to its peer group based on price-to-earnings, price-to-book, price-to-sales, and price-to-cash flow. We believe the premium is warranted because of Guess' impressive results in recent quarters and stronger prospects for growth.


However, we believe the company will not be able to deliver upside surprises in future quarters as it has in the recent past. This will result in the stock trading at a P/E multiple in the mid-teens, compared to its long-term earnings growth of 20%. Our target price is $40 or about 16x our fiscal 2009 EPS estimate.


Read the full analyst report on GES


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